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Trump’s insane Dow Jones rally just keeps going

Tuesday - 10/10/2017 04:13
The US didn’t have a single year with 3 percent growth in gross domestic product under President Obama.
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Getty Images

The President Trump stock market rally is close to becoming the greatest in 85 years.

Since Election Day, the Dow Jones industrial average has surged 24.7 percent — fueled in large part by investor enthusiasm for Trump’s plans to cut regulations and taxes and bring back manufacturing jobs.

Barring a large sell-off over the next month, Trump’s Dow rally will surpass the 23.3 percent gain the much-watched stock index posted in the year following the election of President George H.W. Bush.

The Trump rally, beginning its 12th month today, is compared to the one-year Dow record starting on Election Day.

You’d have to go back to FDR, first elected in 1932 as the US started to recover from the Great Depression, to see a larger jump. The Dow rose 54.9 percent following Election Day that year.

What’s more, surveys of business confidence are at an all-time high — something the tweeting president sees as a personal conquest. “Business is looking better than ever with business enthusiasm at record levels. Stock Market at an all-time high. That doesn’t just happen!” Trump tweeted on Aug. 3.

Some observers, though, are hard-pressed to point to the reasons behind the historic runup — especially when Trump often targets business leaders with criticism.

“When I think back on the whole year, the forecast versus the fulfillment, I don’t think the Trump administration has done anything,” Sam Stovall, an analyst at CFRA, told The Post. “Other than maybe reduce a couple of regulations, or at least lower the bar on regulation, nothing’s happened.”

Other major indexes have also seen huge surges this year. The S&P 500, a broader gauge of US companies, has risen 19.2 percent since Election Day. The Nasdaq has surged the most, 26.9 percent, driven largely by Apple and Amazon — two companies that Trump has publicly attacked.

The Trump tax plan, which may face a rough road to being law of the land in its current form, is aiming to slash nominal tax rates for corporations from about 40 percent to about 20 percent, as well lower taxes that would incentivize companies like Apple to move profits abroad back to the US.

“We believe we can have 3-plus percent growth with taxes and the regulation reform that we’re after now,” Gary Cohn, Trump’s top economic adviser, told Bloomberg TV on Friday.

The US didn’t have a single year with 3 percent growth in gross domestic product under President Obama.

Investors like tax cuts for foreign money because companies tend to spend that money on stock buybacks, which often lifts share prices.

Of course, stocks could collapse at any time, though it’s hard to imagine when. On Thursday, the VIX, known as Wall Street’s fear index, hit its lowest level ever — an indication that investors are keeping their chips in the game.

Since Election Day, the Dow has surged an average of 2 percent a month, closing at 22,773.67 on Friday.

If the bull market maintains its pace, the Dow could rise above 23,200 by Nov. 8 — marking a gain of about 5,100 points.

Source: NY Post:

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